Evaluating programmes: experiments, non-experiments, and propensity score, ESRI working paper no. 126, March 2000

Conniffe, Denis and Gash, Vanessa and O'Connell, Philip J. (2000) Evaluating programmes: experiments, non-experiments, and propensity score, ESRI working paper no. 126, March 2000. [Working Paper]

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Abstract

Evaluation of programmes-for example, labour market interventions such as employment schemes and training courses-usually involve comparison of a treatment group (recipients of the programme) with a control group (non-recipients) as regards some response (gaining employment for example). But the ideal of radomisation of individuals to groups is rarely possible in the social sciences and there may be substantial differences between groups in the distributions of individual characteristics that can effect response. Past practice in economics has been to try to use multiple regression models to adjust away the differences in observed characteristics, while also testing for sample selection bias. The propensity score approach, which is widely applied epidemiology and related fields, focuses on the idea that "matching" individuals in the groups should be compared. The appropriate matching measure is usually taken to be the prior probability of programme participation. This paper describes the key ideas of propensity score method, compares it with the common approach in economics, reviews arguments in the literature and illustrates application by reanalysis of some Irish data on training courses.

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