Link to the University of Pittsburgh
Link to the University Library SystemContact us link
AEI Banner

Is the crisis over? The economic situation in Belarus after two years of recession. OSW Commentary NUMBER 262 | 27.02.2018

Kłysiński, Kamil (2018) Is the crisis over? The economic situation in Belarus after two years of recession. OSW Commentary NUMBER 262 | 27.02.2018. [Policy Paper]

[img] PDF - Published Version
Download (146Kb)

    Abstract

    In 2017, Belarus’s GDP went up 2.4%, the first positive result since 2014. This meant an exit from a two-year recession, further proof of which includes an upward trend in industrial production, low inflation and a relatively high level of currency reserves. It appears that Belarus has returned to the path of economic growth, above all as an effect of the improvement of the situation on the global fuel markets, resulting in increasing income from the sale of petroleum products, one of its main exports. The fact that the Belarusian-Russian dispute over the terms of oil and gas supplies from Russia, which had continued for more than a year, was resolved in April 2017 has also had a positive effect. Another important factor was the improvement of the economic situation in Russia, which is the key market for a significant section of Belarusian exports. In turn, the Belarusian government’s policy has only contributed to improving the country’s economic situation to a marginal extent, although the record-low inflation level last year is doubtless a merit of the central bank. Apart from this, moves aimed at preserving the ineffective economic system have prevailed. Heavy industry, most of which is ineffective, is still supported mainly due to President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s fear of the social destabilisation that might be provoked by massive dismissals of personnel from decommissioned plants. The government is continuing its policy of administratively regulating pay rises for the same reason. The reforms launched, for example introduce facilitations for doing business (including the unprecedentedly liberal decree regulating the operation of the IT sector which has been rapidly developing over the past few years); but they will not lead to a comprehensive reconstruction of the inefficient economic model, nor lay the foundations for stable economic growth.

    Export/Citation:EndNote | BibTeX | Dublin Core | ASCII (Chicago style) | HTML Citation | OpenURL
    Social Networking:
    Item Type: Policy Paper
    Subjects for non-EU documents: Countries > Belarus
    Subjects for EU documents: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Series and Periodicals: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Annual Reports: UNSPECIFIED
    Series: Series > Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) > OSW Commentary
    Depositing User: Phil Wilkin
    Official EU Document: No
    Language: English
    Date Deposited: 01 Mar 2018 13:56
    Number of Pages: 6
    Last Modified: 01 Mar 2018 13:56
    URI: http://aei.pitt.edu/id/eprint/93478

    Actions (login required)

    View Item

    Document Downloads