Evaluating Methods for Short to Medium Term County Population Forecasting. ESRI WP143(?). 2002

Morgenroth, Edgar (2002) Evaluating Methods for Short to Medium Term County Population Forecasting. ESRI WP143(?). 2002. [Working Paper]

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Abstract

Public services provision and land use planning are crucially dependent on accurate population forecasts. Such forecasts are particularly important at the local (county) level where they should determine planning decisions such as the provision of water and sewerage facilities, schools, hospitals etc. As such one would expect such forecasts to be produced on a regular basis and be readily available. However, this is not the case and rigorous county population projections are produced rarely and only for a few counties (e.g. Morgenroth, 2001, Brady Shipman Martin, 1999). In contrast national forecasts are produced regularly by the CSO (Central Statistics Office, 1988, 1995, 1999) and more recently the CSO has published regional projections (Central Statistics Office, 2001).

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