Moscow chooses Trump. Russia on the US presidential elections. OSW Commentary 227 | 09.11.2016

Menkiszak, Marek (2016) Moscow chooses Trump. Russia on the US presidential elections. OSW Commentary 227 | 09.11.2016. [Policy Paper]

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Abstract

Immediately after the announcement of the American election results, Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Donald Trump on his victory and expressed hope that the two countries’ bilateral relations could be brought out of the current crisis. For Russia, the political situation in the United States is of crucial political importance, as in the perception of the Kremlin, the US is Russia’s strategic adversary. Despite their official declarations of neutrality, the Russian authorities clearly favoured Trump’s candidacy during the elections. This was linked to Moscow’s hopes for the following events: deepening tensions in trans-Atlantic relations, and with the United States’ other allies (including weakening of NATO); a partial review of US policy in the security sphere (including drawing down US military engagement in Europe, including on NATO’s eastern flank); and in particular a possible strategic deal with Russia (based on the transactional approach seen in Trump’s policy statements, and his perceived ‘pragmatism’ in relation to Russia). In recent months the Russian government has taken a series of active measures (aggressive actions and military demonstrations, cyber-attacks, leaks and media campaigns) whose objectives included compromising or weakening the camp or the candidacy of Hillary Clinton. In recent weeks, this was helped by Russia’s artificial aggravation of the crisis in relations with the United States. At the same time, Moscow has demonstrated its potential to cause harm, and is now attempting to force a new US administration to enter a strategic bargain with it.

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