European Defense Budget Cuts, Defense Posture, and Reform

Schilde, Kaija and Wieluns, Lenka (2015) European Defense Budget Cuts, Defense Posture, and Reform. [Conference Proceedings] (Submitted)

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Abstract

Introduction: In this paper, we find that these claims of an emerging qualitative change in the perspective of European states towards their international security role do not materialize in any country cases. We identified time periods when European states reduce their aggregate military expenditures-we conceptualize and measure them as 'cut periods'. When defense spending 'cut periods' coincide with cuts in other 'input' measures of military capability/power, there are six possible cases of demilitarization. Because material indicators of cuts in several measures of military power are insufficient determinants of the strategic intent behind these cuts, we qualitatively analyze two most likely cases of ideological demilitarization - Austria and Denmark. In neither case can widespread cuts be attributed to demilitarization. Alternatively, when there are aggregate (top-level) cuts but increases in lower (force structure or line item) levels of spending, we hypothesize that states are undergoing defense reforms. We find that a vast majority of defense cut periods are associated with potential defense reform. In all country cases, with the exception of Hungary and Slovakia, countries accelerated their investments in military manpower, R&D, or equipment while they were cutting overall spending. In order to explore whether defense reform is actually intentional, we look at two opposite cases: France and Bulgaria. We find that while both countries underwent defense reform during the 2008-2012 cut period, the French case represents a different kind of reform than the Bulgarian case.

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