End-State Afghanistan. Egmont Paper No. 29, March 2009

Coelmont, Jo. (2009) End-State Afghanistan. Egmont Paper No. 29, March 2009. [Policy Paper]

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Abstract

[From the Introduction] The international intervention in Afghanistan was a reaction to the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington of 11 September 2009. At the time, the intervention could count on broad political support and the understanding of a large share of public opinion, also because of the UN mandate. Very quickly, remarkable results were obtained: ousting the Taliban from power, closing the terrorist training camps, undermining al-Qaeda as an organization and suppressing insurgent activities in large parts of Afghan territory. After a while a security situation was achieved which allowed for reconstruction in regions which had known nothing but war for thirty years. Significant political, economic and social progress was achieved in a relatively short term. Seven years later the optimist discourse has lost all credibility. The security situation is constantly degrading, not just in Afghanistan, but far into Pakistan as well, while tensions are mounting in the broad region. It has become clear to everyone that now, more than ever, a new approach, a different strategy is needed – muddling through is not an option. Nor is a hasty retreat: too many parameters have changed for the negative to allow that.

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