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The (pro-) cyclicality of fiscal policy in the EU and governments’ expectations of future output growth: New evidence. ESRI Working Paper 683 November 2020.

Cronin, David and McQuinn, Kieran (2020) The (pro-) cyclicality of fiscal policy in the EU and governments’ expectations of future output growth: New evidence. ESRI Working Paper 683 November 2020. [Working Paper]

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    Abstract

    Data from member states’ Stability and Convergence Programmes from 2011 to 2018 are used to assess the cyclicality of government consumption in the EU after the European Semester took effect. Econometric estimations, which address endogeneity issues, find the intended (ex-ante) fiscal policy to be pro-cyclical in nature. Government consumption is also found to be pro-cyclical ex-post but to a much lesser extent than ex-ante. This appears to be largely owing to a forecasting bias on the part of official forecasters occurring, despite the purported improvements to EU member states’ surveillance and forecasting mechanisms that have been put in place in recent years to address such bias.

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    Item Type: Working Paper
    Subjects for non-EU documents: EU policies and themes > Policies & related activities > economic and financial affairs > economic growth
    EU policies and themes > Policies & related activities > economic and financial affairs > fiscal policy
    Subjects for EU documents: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Series and Periodicals: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Annual Reports: UNSPECIFIED
    Series: Series > Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Dublin > ESRI Working Papers
    Depositing User: Daniel Pennell
    Official EU Document: No
    Language: English
    Date Deposited: 23 Aug 2021 10:31
    Number of Pages: 22
    Last Modified: 23 Aug 2021 10:31
    URI: http://aei.pitt.edu/id/eprint/103527

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