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The cyclicality of Irish fiscal policy ex-ante and ex-post. ESRI WP581, December 2017

Cronin, David and McQuinn, Kieran (2017) The cyclicality of Irish fiscal policy ex-ante and ex-post. ESRI WP581, December 2017. [Working Paper]

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    Abstract

    The cyclicality of fiscal policy in Ireland in the budgetary plans put before parliament and ex-post is considered. Data in budgetary documents and particular econometric estimation procedures help address endogeneity issues and provide numerous variable-estimation procedure combinations for assessing cyclicality. Fiscal policy in Ireland is found to be procyclical on both ex-ante and ex-post bases. The evidence is mixed between policy being more pro-cyclical ex-post than was intended at Budget time and there being no difference. With the preventive arm of the Stability and Growth Pact now applying to Ireland, a continuation of procyclical fiscal policy would endanger its requirements being met.

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    Item Type: Working Paper
    Subjects for non-EU documents: EU policies and themes > Policies & related activities > environmental policy (including international arena)
    Countries > Ireland
    EU policies and themes > Policies & related activities > budgets & financing
    EU policies and themes > Policies & related activities > economic and financial affairs > fiscal policy
    Subjects for EU documents: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Series and Periodicals: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Annual Reports: UNSPECIFIED
    Series: Series > Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Dublin > ESRI Working Papers
    Depositing User: Phil Wilkin
    Official EU Document: No
    Language: English
    Date Deposited: 26 Dec 2019 14:55
    Number of Pages: 21
    Last Modified: 26 Dec 2019 14:55
    URI: http://aei.pitt.edu/id/eprint/102194

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