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Bergin, Adele and Conefrey, Thomas and Fitz Gerald, John and Kearney, Ide (2009) RECOVERY SCENARIOS FOR IRELAND. ESRI RESEARCH SERIES NUMBER 7 MAY 2009. UNSPECIFIED.

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    The Irish economy is facing extremely challenging times. It is in the throes of a deep recession, unemployment is rising rapidly and the Irish banking system is facing serious funding difficulties. As a consequence, by the end of 2010 output per head will have fallen back to its 2001 level. Nonetheless, our analysis suggests that the potential growth rate of the economy is around 3 per cent a year. Given the very severe recession that Ireland is currently experiencing, this means that when the world economy eventually recovers the Irish economy can be expected to experience a period of above average growth. On this basis, output per head could be restored to its 2007 level by the middle of the next decade. Consistent with this forecast, our estimates suggest that there will be a permanent loss of output of 10 per cent compared to where the economy might have been. This will represent a very painful permanent “scar” on the economy arising from the current recession.

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    Item Type: Other
    Subjects for non-EU documents: Countries > Ireland
    EU policies and themes > Policies & related activities > economic and financial affairs > financial crisis 2008-on/reforms/economic governance
    Subjects for EU documents: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Series and Periodicals: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Annual Reports: UNSPECIFIED
    Series: Series > Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Dublin > ESRI Research Series
    Depositing User: Phil Wilkin
    Official EU Document: No
    Language: English
    Date Deposited: 15 Nov 2019 15:31
    Number of Pages: 70
    Last Modified: 15 Nov 2019 15:31

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