Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2012

Duffy, David and Durkan, Joseph and Casey, Eddie (2012) Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2012. [Working Paper]

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Abstract

Notwithstanding the considerable obstacles to growth facing Ireland’s main trading partners, results for 2011 show that output grew for the first time in four years, expanding by 1.4 per cent in GDP terms. However, domestic demand remained very weak and GNP, which we consider to be a better measure of Ireland’s economic performance, fell again, contracting by 2.5 per cent. We expect that GNP will fall marginally again this year, before increasing modestly in 2013. Unemployment will remain high at 14.8 per cent, declining only slightly next year and the balance of payments surplus is expected to continue to rise. The fiscal targets are likely to be comfortably met this year and next year, with the appropriate changes in taxes and expenditure, the targets should be met.

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