Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2011

Durkan, Joseph and O'Sullivan, Cormac (2011) Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2011. [Working Paper]

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Abstract

The set of forecasts in this Commentary describe an economy in transition. This transition is from an economy where growth was led by domestic demand to one where export growth by both multinational and local firms will become the engine of growth. This transition is underway as domestic firms in the tradable goods sector have sought to replace falling domestic demand by sales in overseas markets. Output and exports from traditional firms increased in 2010, with exports from the food and drink sectors in particular rising by 11 per cent in value terms. This is very similar to the experience of the 1980s, when exports led growth, and the reverse of what happened in the 2000s when the strong growth in domestic demand led firms to shift their emphasis from exports to the domestic market.

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