Quarterly Economic Commentary, October 1997

Baker, T.J. and Duffy, David and Shortall, Fergal (1997) Quarterly Economic Commentary, October 1997. [Working Paper]

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Abstract

It now seems likely that real GNP will increase by about 7% per cent in 1997, marginally above the average growth rate of the pas.t three years. Growth will again be balanced, with both exports and domestic demand contributing strongly. As a consequence employment will also rise rapidly, with a net increase of over 50,000 in the annual average number at work. Despite the prolonged boom, inflation remains subdued, with the annual average increase in the consumer price index forecast at under 1% per cent, and average pay rises still generally conforming to the moderate terms of Partnership 2000. Improved collection, allied to the rapid growth of domestic demand, is leading to a massive rise in tax receipts, and a General Government Surplus in 1997 seems assured.

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