Seasonality and Other Components of the Irish Unemployment Series. Quarterly Economic Commentary, April 1980

O'Reilly, L. and Gray, A. (1980) Seasonality and Other Components of the Irish Unemployment Series. Quarterly Economic Commentary, April 1980. [Working Paper]

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Abstract

This paper examines methods of seasonally adjusting economic time series; in particular, it examines the methods of estimating the seasonal and other time series components of unemployment in Ireland. Thus, while the results of this analysis may have implications for other time series, the study's main aim is the adjustment of the unemployment data. It should be emphasised that a univariate analysis is being carried out here and the optimal method of seasonal adjustment could be much different in the case of a multivariate approach - Wallis (1976). The results shed some light on the question of whether the series contains an additive multiplicative or mixed seasonal element - Dowling (1975) and Bradley (1977). It also agrees with the recommendations made in the Report of the Interdepartmental Study Group on Unemployment Statistics (ISGU) (1979) that a seasonally adjusted series of Live Register figures be compiled and published. However, the most satisfactory method of seasonal adjustment leads to the rejection of another of the group's recommendations: that the frequency of publication of the present weekly Live Register statement should be reduced to a monthly basis.

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