Irish Quarterly Macroeconomic Data: A Volatility Analysis. ESRI Research Notes 2015/2/1

Conroy, Niall (2015) Irish Quarterly Macroeconomic Data: A Volatility Analysis. ESRI Research Notes 2015/2/1. UNSPECIFIED.

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Abstract

This Note presents an updated assessment of the volatility of Irish quarterly macroeconomic data from 1997 Q1 to 2014 Q3. This Note follows McCarthy (2003) in highlighting the volatility of Irish quarterly macroeconomic data in an international context. The quarter-to-quarter volatility in real macroeconomic aggregates, including gross output (GDP) and gross income (GNP), remain extremely high for the Irish data. The volatility in the Irish data is greater than that displayed by all other OECD countries, except Iceland. This highlights the caution required when interpreting quarterly changes in annualised growth rates. This high level of volatility, combined with large revisions poses challenges for forecasters and policymakers.

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