IDENTIFICATION OF INDIVIDUALS AT RISK OF BECOMING LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED. ESRI Research Bulletin 2009/4/5

O’Connell, Philip and McGuinness, Seamus and Kelly, Elish and Walsh, John (2009) IDENTIFICATION OF INDIVIDUALS AT RISK OF BECOMING LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED. ESRI Research Bulletin 2009/4/5. UNSPECIFIED.

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Abstract

Unemployment has risen sharply during the current recession – from 4.5 per cent at the end of 2007 to 12.5 per cent in November 2009, with forecasts for 2010 in the region of 15 per cent. When unemployment last reached these levels, long-term unemployment also rose sharply. Preventing long-term unemployment is important from both economic and social perspectives, especially because long-term unemployment tends to lead to erosion of skills and self-confidence, and damages future employment prospects. Effective prevention depends on being able to identify those at risk of becoming long-term unemployed at an early stage, and referring them to appropriate labour market programmes to improve their chances of obtaining employment. This was the motivation for a recently published ESRI report1 which developed a statistical profiling model for Ireland that would identify those individuals with a high risk of becoming long-term unemployed.

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