Between continuity and erosion: three scenarios for the future of transatlantic relations. College of European Policy Brief #7.18

Binnendijk, Hans (2018) Between continuity and erosion: three scenarios for the future of transatlantic relations. College of European Policy Brief #7.18. [Policy Paper]

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Abstract

> Maintaining transatlantic bonds in an increasingly complex and dangerous world is vital to the ‘liberal international order’. > In light of ongoing slippage in transatlantic relations, three alternative futures exist: > The continuation of strong US leadership in political, security, and economic affairs. This future is contingent upon American will and European acceptance of US leadership. It does not necessarily require a stronger Europe; > A more balanced relationship in which Europe solidifies, the security burden is more evenly balanced, and strong transatlantic trade ties are maintained. This future is contingent upon Europe fighting centrifugal forces and defending common transatlantic values. > The erosion of the current transatlantic bonds and institutions like NATO. With them could go much of the liberal international order. Without these institutions Europe would be more vulnerable to conflicts and could witness a re-emergence of divisive nationalism and more authoritarian governments. > Given current trends the third outcome could be the dangerous default option. To prevent it, Europe must be patient as the US struggles with its current transition while the US must encourage Europe to develop a stronger foreign and security capability.

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