The Brexit 'Future Relationship': not a deal, but a half-blind date. CEPS Commentary, 26 November 2018

Emerson, Michael (2018) The Brexit 'Future Relationship': not a deal, but a half-blind date. CEPS Commentary, 26 November 2018. [Policy Paper]

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Abstract

As opposed to the accompanying Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, to call the Political Declaration on the ‘future relationship’ between the UK and EU a ‘deal’ is premature writes Michael Emerson. The text foresees an Association Agreement, much along the lines of that between the EU and Ukraine. But it is non-binding, and brims with warnings that the degree of market access will depend on the extent to which the UK accepts EU rules. Completing the process can now realistically take up to four more years, during which the business climate in the UK will be plagued by continuing uncertainty. Moreover, the EU holds all the bargaining cards, since in the absence of agreement, the default outcome is a ‘no deal’ that would be disastrous for the UK. The prospect of prolonged uncertainty should give MPs pause, and perhaps constitutes a reason for the country to reflect again.

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