Is the French presidential election a referendum on EU membership? College of Europe Policy Brief #3.17, April 2017

Costa, Olivier (2017) Is the French presidential election a referendum on EU membership? College of Europe Policy Brief #3.17, April 2017. [Policy Paper]

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Abstract

Executive Summary > European issues are traditionally poorly addressed in French political debates. They are all the less present in 2017, due to the campaign’s main focus on current legal cases and the ongoing political reconfigurations. > However, Europe is one of the fundamental dividing lines of the campaign. The majority of the 11 candidates have developed a highly Eurosceptic discourse. Only Emmanuel Macron (EM), François Fillon (LR) and Benoît Hamon (PS) have adopted a moderate position on the matter. > This rejection of EU integration is above all a reflection of the rise of populism. The arguments behind this rejection appear weak. > Abroad, the French election is worrying observers because of its uncertain character, judged to be a form of referendum on France's EU membership. > Nevertheless, the presidential election is only the first step in a longer electoral sequence: it will be followed by equally uncertain legislative elections.

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