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The political economy of Middle East and North Africa oil exporters in times of global decarbonisation. Bruegel Working Paper 05/2017

Tagliapietra, Simone (2017) The political economy of Middle East and North Africa oil exporters in times of global decarbonisation. Bruegel Working Paper 05/2017. [Working Paper]

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    Abstract

    Endowed with half of the world’s known oil and gas reserves, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is a cornerstone of the global energy architecture. This architecture is currently undergoing a structural transformation, prompted by two different forces: decarbonisation policies and low-carbon technology advancements. The energy literature offers no comprehensive analysis of the potential impact of the global energy transformation on the MENA region. This paper seeks to fill this gap by investigating the following research question: are MENA oil exporting countries equipped to prosper in times of global decarbonisation? Making use of the Rentier State Theory and of a business-as-usual projection of the exploitation of oil resources in MENA countries, we highlight on the lack of incentives for MENA oil exporters to pursue paths of economic diversification. On the basis of a scenario-based analysis, we illustrate that, should the Paris Agreement on climate change be implemented, MENA oil exporters would see their oil rents decline over the next few decades. MENA oil-exporting countries are still not adequately equipped to prosper in a decarbonising world.Therefore, decarbonisation should represent an incentive for MENA oil exporters to pursue structural processes of transition from rentier to production states.

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    Item Type: Working Paper
    Subjects for non-EU documents: EU policies and themes > Policies & related activities > energy policy (Including international arena)
    EU policies and themes > Policies & related activities > environmental policy (including international arena)
    EU policies and themes > External relations > EU-Middle East
    EU policies and themes > External relations > EU-North Africa/Maghreb
    Subjects for EU documents: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Series and Periodicals: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Annual Reports: UNSPECIFIED
    Series: Series > Bruegel (Brussels) > Working Papers
    Depositing User: Phil Wilkin
    Official EU Document: No
    Language: English
    Date Deposited: 12 Apr 2017 08:46
    Number of Pages: 24
    Last Modified: 12 Apr 2017 08:46
    URI: http://aei.pitt.edu/id/eprint/85974

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