"Beyond the Demand Side: The Effects of Multi-Level Governance on Regionalist Movements in Europe"

Jolly, Seth Kincaid. (2007) "Beyond the Demand Side: The Effects of Multi-Level Governance on Regionalist Movements in Europe". In: UNSPECIFIED, Montreal, Canada. (Unpublished)

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Abstract

In this paper, I evaluate whether regional citizens are more likely to support greater autonomy because they find the idea of an independent region within Europe to be more viable. The devolution referenda in Scotland in two distinct time periods provide a quasi-experiment in which to explore this observable implication. In the first referendum, a slight majority voted for devolution but the margin was not enough to overcome the electoral threshold set by West- minster. In 1997, though, the result was overwhelmingly pro-devolution. I argue that the fear of independence, coupled with a preference ordering where the second choice for devolution sup- porters was the status quo, explained the strategic voting behavior in 1979. Increased support for independence, as both a first and second option for Scots, fuelled the dramatic increase in sincere voting for devolution in 1997. I also presented evidence to support the contention that European integration, especially the Scottish National Party's successful framing of the EU as a mechanism to reduce the costs of secession, contributed to this increase in support for independence in the 1997 referendum.

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