A Choice Set Modeling Approach to EU Issue Voting

de Vries, Catherine and Steenbergen, Marco R. and Hangartner , Dominik (2009) A Choice Set Modeling Approach to EU Issue Voting. In: UNSPECIFIED. (Unpublished)

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Abstract

Focusing on the case of Britain, this paper evaluates the role that EU issue voting played in the 1992 and 1997 elections. EU issue voting arises when the issue of European integration has a direct in uence on vote choice by in uencing the attractiveness of party alternatives. In this paper, we explore two different ways in which such infleunce can occur: elimination of party alternatives due to their EU stance or moderator of the utility felt toward a subset of party alternatives that are all viable for the voter. These two in uences are explored through a choice set logistic regression model. The results suggest that EU issue voting increased from 1992 to 1997, especially in England. However, compared with traditional left-right issues, the influence of EU issue voting remained modest even in 1997, when public opinion had taken a Euroskeptic turn and when the Conservative party was seen as much closer than Labour on this issue.

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