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The effect of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, public health, and the economy. Bruegel Working Paper Issue 01/2022 18 January 2022.

Oliu-Barton, Miquel and Pradelski, Bary and Woloszko, Nicolas and Guetta-Jeanrenaud , Lionel and Aghion , Philippe and Artus, Patrick and Fontanet, Arnaud and Martin, Philippe and Wolff, Guntram (2022) The effect of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, public health, and the economy. Bruegel Working Paper Issue 01/2022 18 January 2022. [Working Paper]

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    Abstract

    In the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have, among other measures, mandated the use of COVID certificates to prove vaccination, recovery or a recent negative test, and have required individuals to show certificates to access shops, restaurants, and education or workplaces. While arguments for and against COVID certificates have focused on reducing transmission and ethical concerns, the incentive effects of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, health outcomes and the economy has not yet been investigated. To estimate these effects, we construct counterfactuals based on innovation diffusion theory for France, Germany and Italy. We estimate that the announcement of COVID certificates during summer 2021 led to increased vaccine uptake in France of 13.0 (95% CI 9.7–14.9) percentage points (p.p.) of the total population up to the end of the year, in Germany 6.2 (2.6–6.9) p.p., and in Italy 9.7 (5.4–12.3) p.p. Further, this averted an additional 3,979 (3,453–4,298) deaths in France, 1,133 (-312–1,358) in Germany, and 1,331 (502–1,794) in Italy; and prevented gross domestic product (GDP) losses of €6.0 (5.9–6.1) billion in France, €1.4 (1.3–1.5) billion in Germany, and €2.1 (2.0–2.2) billion in Italy. Notably, the application of COVID certificates substantially reduced the pressure on intensive care units (ICUs) and, in France, prevented occupancy levels being exceeded where prior lockdowns were instated. Varying government communication efforts and restrictions associated with COVID certificates may explain country differences, such as the smaller effect in Germany. Overall, our findings are more sizeable than predicted. This analysis may help inform decisions about when and how to employ COVID certificates to increase vaccine uptake and thus avoid stringent interventions, such as closures, curfews, and lockdowns, with major social and economic consequences.

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    Item Type: Working Paper
    Subjects for non-EU documents: EU policies and themes > Policies & related activities > innovation policy
    EU policies and themes > Policies & related activities > public health policy (including global activities)
    EU policies and themes > Policies & related activities > economic and financial affairs > digital economy
    Subjects for EU documents: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Series and Periodicals: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Annual Reports: UNSPECIFIED
    Series: Series > Bruegel (Brussels) > Working Papers
    Depositing User: Daniel Pennell
    Official EU Document: No
    Language: English
    Date Deposited: 26 Jan 2022 13:50
    Number of Pages: 26
    Last Modified: 26 Jan 2022 13:52
    URI: http://aei.pitt.edu/id/eprint/103774

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