Manufacturing Output and Employment by Market Area. Quarterly Economic Commentary Special Article, Spring 1993

Baker, T.J. and Scott, S. and Cantillon, S. (1993) Manufacturing Output and Employment by Market Area. Quarterly Economic Commentary Special Article, Spring 1993. [Working Paper]

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Abstract

The currency instability following sterling's withdrawal from the ERM focused attention on the proportion of industrial employment dependent on the UK market or otherwise vulnerable to fluctuations in the value of sterling. Although exchange rates are now more stable, a renewed depreciation of sterling within the next few years cannot be ruled out. Thus the issue of the employment share of major overseas markets remains of interest and deserves closer examination. No definitive detailed assessment of total employment exposure to currency risks is feasible, although surveys can make a significant contribution to knowledge, especially in the difficult areas of overseas competition on the domestic market and international competition in third markets. However, as a statistical baseline, the employment dependent on different markets in 1989 can be derived from the Census of Industrial Production for that year. Taken in conjunction with the 1985 Input-Output tables, a reasonable estimate of the employment content of domestic disposal and of direct and indirect exports to the UK, other EC countries and to the rest of the world can be made. The information is obviously rather dated by now, but the basic patterns are unlikely to have been radically changed in the intervening years. A clear picture of the 1989 pattern should still provide a useful basis for the consideration of future developments.

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