Assessment of QEC Forecasts, 1984-90. Quarterly Economic Commentary Special Article, Spring 1991

Wren, Anne and Baker, T.J. and Scott, S. (1991) Assessment of QEC Forecasts, 1984-90. Quarterly Economic Commentary Special Article, Spring 1991. [Working Paper]

PDF - Published Version Download (917Kb)

Abstract

Like most economic forecasters, we keep an informal check on the performance of our forecasts. Significant errors are analysed in the hope of minimising their recurrence in the future. There is a strong case, however, for undertaking and publishing a more structured overview of forecasting performance from time to time. Studying several years' forecasts together should indicate whether there is any tendency for errors to follow persistent patterns. Accordingly, this exercise examines the forecasts presented in Quarterly Economic Commentaries (QEC) for the years from 1984 to 1990.

Actions (login required)