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THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TOTAL ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE. ESRI WP382. April 2011

Tol, Richard S.J. (2011) THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TOTAL ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE. ESRI WP382. April 2011. [Working Paper]

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    Abstract

    This paper uses a vote-counting procedure to estimate the probability density function of the total economic impact as a parabolic function of global warming. There is a wide range of uncertainty about the impact of climate change up to 3ºC, and the information becomes progressively more diffuse beyond that. Warming greater than 3ºC most likely has net negative impacts, and warming greater than 7ºC may lead to a total welfare loss. The expected value of the social cost of carbon is about $29/tC in 2015 and rises at roughly 2% per year.

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    Item Type: Working Paper
    Subjects for non-EU documents: EU policies and themes > Policies & related activities > environmental policy (including international arena)
    Subjects for EU documents: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Series and Periodicals: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Annual Reports: UNSPECIFIED
    Series: Series > Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Dublin > ESRI Working Papers
    Depositing User: Alyssa McDonald
    Official EU Document: No
    Language: English
    Date Deposited: 12 Mar 2018 16:10
    Number of Pages: 28
    Last Modified: 12 Mar 2018 16:10
    URI: http://aei.pitt.edu/id/eprint/87925

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