TIME TO RECONSIDER? THE CHAOS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND TURKISH SUPPORT FOR THE EU

Oktay, Sibel and Jolly, Seth (2015) TIME TO RECONSIDER? THE CHAOS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND TURKISH SUPPORT FOR THE EU. [Conference Proceedings] (Submitted)

PDF - Submitted Version Download (647Kb)

Abstract

Support for European integration among Turks has dropped from 67% in 2002 to 34% in 2008, with only 42% of Turks supporting enlargement in a 2011 Eurobarometer. As previous research on Turkish Euroskepticism has demonstrated, the opposition to Turkish enlargement within European states—the so-called ‘Turkoskepticism,’ as well as Turkish economic growth and identity-based concerns are likely reasons for this declining trend. In this study, we push these findings further to demonstrate the effects of Turkish foreign policy on EU support. Do the Turks find the EU more favorable as their concerns on Iran, political Islam, or the Syrian civil war increase? Using Pew Global Attitudes Project survey from 2013, we demonstrate that as Turks view their regional neighborhood increasingly volatile and threatening, they see the European Union as a more favorable actor. This effect is consistent across different model specifications, and illustrates that concerns over the international political context is just as important in explaining Turkish public attitudes toward the EU as some of the well-established utilitarian explanations of support.

Actions (login required)