The Emergence of the European Integration Dimension in National Party Systems, 1945-2010

Konig, Thomas and Marbach, Moritz and Osnabrugge, Moritz (2015) The Emergence of the European Integration Dimension in National Party Systems, 1945-2010. [Conference Proceedings] (Submitted)

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Abstract

We investigate whether and, if so, when and where a new European integration dimension emerges in national party competition that complements the traditional left/right-dimension in Europe. We develop a Bayesian Finite Mixture Factor Analysis to estimate the probability for the latent one-dimensional traditional left/right and two-dimensional inverted U-shaped configuration with anti-European parties at the peripheries. Our empirical analysis combines expert and transformed manifesto data, covering the period since World War II. The estimation reveals that the probability for a one-dimensional configuration becomes on average less likely than the probability for a two-dimensional configuration since the late 1980s. We provide evidence that the increasing transfer of competences to the EU as manifested by EU membership plays a key role for the emergence of the European integration dimension. Our findings are supported by a series of validity tests and have implications for a many political phenomena.

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