The (pan-)Turkic Caucasus. The Baku-Ankara alliance and its regional importance. OSW Commentary Number 374 1.02.2021.

Górecki, Wojciech and Chudziak, Mateusz (2021) The (pan-)Turkic Caucasus. The Baku-Ankara alliance and its regional importance. OSW Commentary Number 374 1.02.2021. [Policy Paper]

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Abstract

The Nagorno-Karabakh war of autumn 2020 and the military parade organised in Baku after its end, which was jointly hosted by the presidents of Azerbaijan and Turkey, Ilham Aliyev and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, highlighted the potential of the alliance between both countries. The close ties between Baku and Ankara result from a strategic choice made almost three decades ago. The diverse activities they have undertaken to strengthen their cooperation have varied in intensity over that period, but their overall direction has remained unchanged. As a result, Azerbaijan has gradually distanced itself from Russia, and through its cooperation with Turkey, it has moved closer (albeit mainly economically) to the West. Ankara, on the other hand, has strengthened its position in the South Caucasus. This has led to the formation of an Ankara-Baku axis, which presents a challenge to Moscow because it limits Russian influence in the region. However, the Turkic duo has been taking care not to antagonise Russia directly; one expression of this approach is their acceptance of Moscow’s key role in resolving the Karabakh conflict.

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