Russia 2021: Consolidation of a dictatorship. OSW Commentary Number 419 8.12.2021.

Domańska, Maria (2021) Russia 2021: Consolidation of a dictatorship. OSW Commentary Number 419 8.12.2021. [Policy Paper]

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Abstract

The dynamics of the domestic political situation in Russia in 2021 was determined by the authorities' crackdown on Alexei Navalny – the most important opposition figure – as well as on his associates and supporters. The aim was to destroy the nucleus of a nascent political alternative to the regime in view of the parliamentary election in September 2021 and, above all, the presidential election scheduled for 2024. The September vote revealed the limits of public support for the Kremlin and the considerable scale of the protest vote against those in power. Despite the unprecedented wave of repression and the lack of real competition in the parliamentary election, it was necessary to commit wholesale fraud to achieve the desired official results. The communist party (CPRF) became the main beneficiary of the protest vote, although it is doubtful whether the communists can become a real opposition force. Post-election polls have revealed a deepening of many trends in public opinion, which are unfavourable to the government – including a further decline in trust in the authorities, growing fatigue with Vladimir Putin's rule, and an increase in social demands. The likely response to it will be an escalation of the regime's repressive course in the coming years. The obsession with control over citizens and the stifling of dissent will above all bring further waves of political emigration.

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