The Cyprus problem: Has time run out for reunification? EPC Commentary April 2021.

Paul, Amanda (2021) The Cyprus problem: Has time run out for reunification? EPC Commentary April 2021. [Policy Paper]

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Abstract

For the past five decades, a solution to the Cyprus problem has remained elusive. With the different sides now having different visions for the island’s future, it remains to be seen whether forthcoming talks in Geneva will bear fruit or bomb. From 27 to 29 April, the leaders of the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities, Nicos Anastasiades and Ersin Tatar, and the three guarantor countries of Greece, Turkey and the UK will partake in informal talks convened by the UN Secretary-General in Geneva. The EU will also attend in an observer capacity. The goal is to gauge whether there is enough common ground to resume negotiations to finally resolve the Cyprus conflict. It will be the first such meeting since the collapse of talks in Crans-Montana in July 2017. Anastasiades continues to support a bizonal, bicommunal federation based on political equality, as provided for in the relevant UN Security Council resolutions. However, Tatar and Ankara hold that after decades of failed efforts, the federal solution has had its day. They advocate a two-state solution based on sovereign equality instead. There is every possibility the meeting will end in deadlock or with one side walking away. This would be an awful outcome: it risks exacerbating tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean and in EU–Turkey relations further, as progress on Cyprus is central to the EU’s new positive agenda with Ankara.

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