Biden’s policy towards China: the prospects for transatlantic dialogue. OSW Commentary 2020-11-13.

Jakóbowski, Jakub (2020) Biden’s policy towards China: the prospects for transatlantic dialogue. OSW Commentary 2020-11-13. UNSPECIFIED.

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Abstract

Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election means that Washington will continue its confrontational policy towards Beijing. At the same time, it will clearly change its tactics and attempt to mobilise the US’s network of alliances to contain China. On 13 November, China congratulated Biden and Kamala Harris, but highlighted the need to resolve possible legal disputes. The expected change in the US administration has been widely commented upon in the Chinese press. The initial reactions from China reveal expectations that competition with Washington will continue in almost all key areas, although Beijing hopes to unblock some channels for diplomatic contacts. It also expects an extensive US-EU dialogue to begin discussing what actions should be taken with regard to the PRC. The first reactions from Europe suggest that this scenario is very likely. Biden’s victory has been presented as an opportunity for a joint response to the challenges linked to China by Heiko Maas, the German foreign minister, and some representatives of Brussels. However, creating a common front on Beijing will require a number of structural problems in transatlantic relations to be resolved, including in the areas of trade and services, digital technologies and security. The Biden administration’s policy towards China will continue the multidimensional rivalry that the presidency of Donald Trump has permanently inscribed in US strategy. This trend is the subject of US bipartisan consensus. Furthermore, in recent years, both the presidential administration and the Congress have become involved in measures aimed against the PRC. China’s actions are also guided by the logic of structural conflict. It has no hope that Biden’s presidency will help in easing its relations with the US, and now sees the confrontation as a permanent trend resulting from a fundamental divergence of interests. In the run-up to the election, Beijing stepped up its aggressive actions in the Indo-Pacific area, and also took steps to become technologically and economically independent from the United States. The first Chinese press comments hinted at the possibility of improving communication with Washington, in order to reduce the risk of an uncontrolled escalation of military tension in the Pacific and bring about limited talks on climate and trade. Biden’s policy will therefore be determined by both the US establishment’s expectations that his administration will be more effective in containing China than Trump’s was, and by Beijing’s growing assertiveness on the international stage.

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