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Monitoring Covid-19 contagion growth in Europe. CEPS Working Document No 2020/03, March 2020

Agosto, Arianna and Campmas, Alexandra and Giudici, Paolo and Renda, Andrea (2020) Monitoring Covid-19 contagion growth in Europe. CEPS Working Document No 2020/03, March 2020. [Working Paper]

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    We present an econometric model which can be employed to monitor the evolution of the COVID-19 contagion curve. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases, and can dynamically show the evolution of contagion in different time periods and locations, allowing for the comparative evaluation of policy approaches. We present timely results for nine European countries currently hit by the virus. From the findings, we draw four main conclusions. First, countries experiencing an explosive process (currently France, Italy and Spain), combined with high persistence of contagion shocks (observed in most countries under investigation), require swift policy measures such as quarantine, diffuse testing and even complete lockdown. Second, in countries with high persistence but lower contagion growth (currently Germany) careful monitoring should be coupled with at least “mild” restrictions such as physical distancing or isolation of specific areas. Third, in some countries, such as Norway and Denmark, where trends seem to be relatively under control and depend on daily contingencies, with low persistence, the approach to restrictive measures should be more cautious since there is a risk that social costs outweigh the benefits. Fourth, countries with a limited set of preventive actions in place (such as the Netherlands, Switzerla

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    Item Type: Working Paper
    Uncontrolled Keywords: Contagion models, Covid-19, European countries, Poisson Autoregressive models, Reproduction number.
    Subjects for non-EU documents: EU policies and themes > Policies & related activities > public health policy (including global activities)
    Countries > Denmark
    Countries > France
    Countries > Germany
    Countries > Italy
    Countries > Netherlands
    Countries > Norway
    Countries > Spain
    Countries > Switzerland
    Countries > U.K.
    Subjects for EU documents: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Series and Periodicals: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Annual Reports: UNSPECIFIED
    Series: Series > Centre for European Policy Studies (Brussels) > CEPS Working Documents
    Depositing User: Phil Wilkin
    Official EU Document: No
    Language: English
    Date Deposited: 31 Mar 2020 11:26
    Number of Pages: 22
    Last Modified: 31 Mar 2020 11:26

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