THE ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF INCREASING THE IRISH CARBON TAX. ESRI RESEARCH SERIES NUMBER 79 OCTOBER 2018

de Bruin, Kelly and Mert Yakut, Aykut (2018) THE ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF INCREASING THE IRISH CARBON TAX. ESRI RESEARCH SERIES NUMBER 79 OCTOBER 2018. UNSPECIFIED.

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Abstract

This study investigates the economic and environmental impacts of increasing the current carbon tax in Ireland from C20 per tonne of CO2 to C25, C30, C35 and C40. For this purpose, an Energy Social Accounting Matrix (ESAM) is developed for Ireland with 33 activities, 39 commodities, and ten household groups based on disposable income. The ESAM reproduces the structure of the Irish economy including production sectors, households and the government and quantifies the nature of all existing economic transactions among the diverse economic agents. Furthermore, the ESAM includes the flows of energy and emissions, creating a framework that can examine how money as well as energy and emissions flows between production sectors, households and the government. In this way the carbon content of different products and different households’ consumption is estimated. The current carbon tax in Ireland stands at C20 per tonne of carbon and is levied to incentivise households and producers to reduce their use of carbon-intensive goods. The carbon tax is relatively low, however, and constitutes just 1.9 per cent of total taxes levied on commodities in Ireland. Carbon tax accounts for only 7.6 per cent of total excise duties levied on petrol and 14 per cent of all excise duties on diesel. Our results reveal that increases in the carbon tax affect the prices of diesel and petrol the most. A C5 increase will increase the prices of carbon commodities by on average 0.8 per cent, and a doubling of the carbon tax to C40 per tonne of CO2 will increase the prices of carbon commodities by on average 3.4 per cent. The diesel price is expected to increase the most due to an increase in the carbon tax, whereby a C25 tax would result in a 1.7 per cent increase in diesel prices. A C40 tax would result in a 7 per cent increase in diesel prices. Putting this into context, it can be noted that in 2018 alone consumers have faced much greater fluctuations in diesel prices. Consumers are accustomed to relatively large fluctuations in fuel prices and may not react to increases in prices, assuming prices will fall again. This makes it extremely important to communicate a clear commitment to an increasing carbon tax by the government.

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