Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2014

Duffy, David and FitzGerald, John and Byrne, David and Ciara, Morley (2014) Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2014. [Working Paper]

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Abstract

The fiscal and economic growth conditions underpinning the 2015 budget have improved quite significantly over the past quarter. In light of the recent trends observed in economic activity, we now revise upwards our growth forecasts for GNP to 4.9 and 5.2 per cent for 2014 and 2015 respectively. This improvement in the forecast is driven by a combination of better than expected performance in the net trade sector, a pick-up in investment levels and strong budgetary receipts. In a research note to the Commentary we highlight how the adoption of the “Nowcasting” methodology enhances our understanding of movements in Irish economic activity between the official release dates of the quarterly national accounts.

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