Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2010. With SPECIAL ARTICLE Recovery Scenarios for Ireland: An Update

Barrett, Alan and Kearney, Ide and Goggin, Jean and Conefrey, Thomas (2010) Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2010. With SPECIAL ARTICLE Recovery Scenarios for Ireland: An Update. [Working Paper]

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Abstract

In recent months, economic indicators and data have produced a mixed picture of the performance of the Irish economy. While data on retail sales, consumer confidence and exports all point to signs that a recovery is already underway, the numbers from the Live Register, income tax returns and the most recent estimates of quarterly GNP would suggest that the economy is still contracting. Coupled with the recent difficulties on sovereign debt markets in Europe, and the on-going crystallisation of the banking losses for the government estimated to be at least €25 billion, the short-term prospects for the Irish economy continue to be precarious. In particular the forecasts we present in this Commentary are critically based on the assumption that difficulties in international financial markets will be resolved swiftly.

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