Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2009. RESEARCH BULLETIN 09/4

Barrett, Alan and Kearney, Ide and Goggin, Jean and Conefrey, Thomas (2009) Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2009. RESEARCH BULLETIN 09/4. [Working Paper]

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Abstract

It is hard to overstate what a difficult year 2009 has been for the Irish economy. We now expect that the economy will contract by 10 per cent on a GNP basis this year, or 7¼ per cent in GDP terms. This follows a contraction of around 3 per cent in 2008, in both GNP and GDP terms. While these are stark figures, the true impact of the recession is probably better illuminated through the figures on employment and unemployment. We now expect that the average number employed will be 170,000 lower in 2009 relative to 2008. Comparing 2007 and 2009, that figure is likely to be 193,000. At the end of 2007, the rate of unemployment was just 4.6 per cent; at the end of 2009, it is 12.5 per cent.

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