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ON THE LIKELY EXTENT OF FALLS IN IRISH HOUSE PRICES. Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2007

Kelly, Morgan (2007) ON THE LIKELY EXTENT OF FALLS IN IRISH HOUSE PRICES. Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2007. [Working Paper]

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    Abstract

    Looking at house price cycles across the OECD since 1970, we find a strong relationship between the size of the initial rise in price and its subsequent fall. Were this relationship to hold for Ireland, it would predict falls of real house prices of 40 to 60 per cent over a period of 8 to 9 years. The unusually large size of the Irish house building industry suggest that any significant house price fall that does occur could impose a difficult adjustment on the economy.

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    Item Type: Working Paper
    Subjects for non-EU documents: Countries > Ireland
    EU policies and themes > Policies & related activities > economic and financial affairs > housing
    Subjects for EU documents: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Series and Periodicals: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Annual Reports: UNSPECIFIED
    Series: Series > Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Dublin > ESRI Quarterly Economic Commentary
    Depositing User: Phil Wilkin
    Official EU Document: No
    Language: English
    Date Deposited: 24 Oct 2019 16:55
    Number of Pages: 14
    Last Modified: 07 Jan 2020 18:32
    URI: http://aei.pitt.edu/id/eprint/99556

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