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Quarterly Economic Commentary, FORECASTING RECORD 1994 TO 2004

Garrett, Shane (2004) Quarterly Economic Commentary, FORECASTING RECORD 1994 TO 2004. [Working Paper]

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    A review of the Quarterly Economic Commentary (the ‘Commentary’) forecasts produced by The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) was last published in the Autumn 1995 Commentary. On that occasion, the forecasting record over the 1990 to 1994 period was reviewed. It was found that forecasts were generally quite accurate and unbiased, though a slightly pessimistic tendency was in evidence. On this occasion, the forecasts contained in the Commentaries relating to the 1994 to 2004 period are examined. At the core of this examination is a comparison of forecasts made in relation to the actual outturn. This analysis also seeks to identify patterns and biases in forecasts, and attempts to provide explanations for the measured divergences between forecasts and outturns.

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    Item Type: Working Paper
    Subjects for non-EU documents: Countries > Ireland
    EU policies and themes > Policies & related activities > economic and financial affairs
    Subjects for EU documents: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Series and Periodicals: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Annual Reports: UNSPECIFIED
    Series: Series > Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Dublin > ESRI Quarterly Economic Commentary
    Depositing User: Phil Wilkin
    Official EU Document: No
    Language: English
    Date Deposited: 24 Oct 2019 16:52
    Number of Pages: 8
    Last Modified: 24 Oct 2019 16:52

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