Quarterly Economic Commentary, FORECASTING RECORD 1994 TO 2004

Garrett, Shane (2004) Quarterly Economic Commentary, FORECASTING RECORD 1994 TO 2004. [Working Paper]

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Abstract

A review of the Quarterly Economic Commentary (the ‘Commentary’) forecasts produced by The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) was last published in the Autumn 1995 Commentary. On that occasion, the forecasting record over the 1990 to 1994 period was reviewed. It was found that forecasts were generally quite accurate and unbiased, though a slightly pessimistic tendency was in evidence. On this occasion, the forecasts contained in the Commentaries relating to the 1994 to 2004 period are examined. At the core of this examination is a comparison of forecasts made in relation to the actual outturn. This analysis also seeks to identify patterns and biases in forecasts, and attempts to provide explanations for the measured divergences between forecasts and outturns.

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