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Alternative Scenarios for Health, Life Expectancy and Social Expenditure: The Influence of Living Longer in Better Health on Health Care and Pension Expenditures and Government Finances in the EU. ENEPRI Research Reports No. 8, 1 June 2005

Pellikaan, Frank and Westerhout, Ed. (2005) Alternative Scenarios for Health, Life Expectancy and Social Expenditure: The Influence of Living Longer in Better Health on Health Care and Pension Expenditures and Government Finances in the EU. ENEPRI Research Reports No. 8, 1 June 2005. UNSPECIFIED.

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    Abstract

    This report investigates the effect of population ageing on public health- and long-term care expenditures, public pensions and government finances in EU countries in the projection period 2002-50. The authors specifically consider new insights about the development of demography and health on these projections. In this regard, the view has been expressed that people may live substantially longer in the future than estimated by current demographic projections and may spend part of these additional years in better health. Both developments have obvious implications for the correct projection of public expenditures and finances. To assess the effects of living longer in better health, four core scenarios are developed: a base case and scenarios for living longer, living in better health and living longer in better health. The analysis also contains a number of new elements. First, it includes the costs incurred during the last years of life in the projections, which will be postponed by an increase in life expectancy. Hence, the calculations in the study correct for the overestimation of future health-care expenditure that arises when no account is made for mortality-related costs. Second, the cost of mortality is disaggregated into a health- and long-term care component, which differs by age. Third, tax revenues are incorporated into the projections for government finances. With this information, the analysis is able to project government finances in the future and assess whether government finances are sustainable under current social policy rules.

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    Item Type: Other
    Subjects for non-EU documents: EU policies and themes > Policies & related activities > social policy > welfare state
    EU policies and themes > Policies & related activities > public health policy
    Subjects for EU documents: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Series: UNSPECIFIED
    ["eprint_fieldname_eusries" not defined]: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Annual Reports: UNSPECIFIED
    Series: Series > Centre for European Policy Studies (Brussels) > ENEPRI Research Reports
    Depositing User: Phil Wilkin
    Official EU Document: No
    Language: English
    Date Deposited: 17 Aug 2009
    Page Range: p. 104
    Last Modified: 06 Apr 2012 13:17
    URI: http://aei.pitt.edu/id/eprint/9509

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