The road to nowhere? Prospects for a post-Brexit trade deal. EPC Policy Brief, 18 September 2018

Zuleeg, Fabian (2018) The road to nowhere? Prospects for a post-Brexit trade deal. EPC Policy Brief, 18 September 2018. [Policy Paper]

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Abstract

The Brexit negotiations continue towards an inevitable showdown, most probably at the EU Summit in December 2018. Faced with a choice between the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and a ‘no-deal’ scenario, the United Kingdom will – most likely – choose not to commit economic suicide. The transition period, which will be included in the WA, will buy some time to negotiate the post-Brexit relationship. However, the next phase of negotiations will not be any easier: the UK and the EU will find it virtually impossible to agree on a trade deal. As a consequence, at the end of the transition period, the cliff edge will loom again. But there is an alternative – not to leave the Single Market and Customs Union after all

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