Some Economic Implications of a Federal Ireland. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 97 1974

Dowling, Brendan R. (1974) Some Economic Implications of a Federal Ireland. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 97 1974. [Policy Paper]

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Abstract

Economists are frequently accused of building elaborate structures out of the most unlikely set of hypotheses. One cannot help suspecting that this charge will be levelled against this paper which makes no attempt to assess the political probability of any agreement on a Federal relationship between Northern Ireland and the Republic. In defense it can be argued that the object of this paper is to examine some of the economic issues that would arise under a federal arrangement while recognising that economic factors are unlikely to be the sole, or dominant, influences in the future political position of Northern Ireland. It would not, of course, be possible to explore every aspect of the economic consequences of a Federal Ireland even under the assumption that the structure of the economy of Northern Ireland and the Republic remains as it is today. Rather we shall have to be content to examine some of the major problems that would face any proposed federation. Thus, to some extent, the bias of this paper will be pessimistic since it will not concentrate on any credit side of the balance sheet. However it must be stated that most of the benefits, if they exist, flow from the assumed dynamic effects of federation; which effects seem to owe more to wishful thinking than an analysis of the present structure of both economies.

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