Brexit and Trade: Between Facts and Irrelevance. Bruges European Economic Policy Briefings 42/2016

Nicolaides, Phedon and Roy, Thibault (2016) Brexit and Trade: Between Facts and Irrelevance. Bruges European Economic Policy Briefings 42/2016. [Policy Paper]

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Abstract

This paper examines four claims of Brexit supporters on the United Kingdom’s post-exit arrangement regarding trade with the EU. It reviews the nature and importance of UK-EU trade links and the possible impact on the UK of leaving the EU customs union. It argues that the claims of pro-Brexit supporters on trade possibilities are based on incongruous arguments which are either logically inconsistent or ignore the extent of commitment required by trade agreements that tackle regulatory barriers, not just tariffs and border restrictions. We demonstrate that the “attractiveness” of the UK market will decline as the UK enters in progressively more agreements. We conclude by analysing the implications for the UK of “taking back control” of its trade policy.

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