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"The Myths of Turkish Influence in the European Union". University of Illinois EUC Working Paper Volume 6, No. 2, 2006

Pahre, Robert, and Uçaray, Burcu. (2006) "The Myths of Turkish Influence in the European Union". University of Illinois EUC Working Paper Volume 6, No. 2, 2006. [Working Paper]

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    Among the many objections to Turkish membership in the European Union lie claims that Turkey will be a powerful actor in the future EU, with a population as large as or larger than Germany. Many also claim that this power will have negative effects on the EU. We examine such claims analytically, influenced strongly by spatial models of EU policy-making. We find that Turkey's preferences lie sufficiently outside the EU mainstream so that it will have little influence in day-to-day policy-making under the assent, codecision, consultation, and cooperation procedures (or the common procedure in the rejected constitutional treaty). Its influence may be more evident in areas such as the CFSP or JHA, where unanimity remains the normal procedure. Still, Turkey's veto power here is no different from that of other, much smaller countries. Furthermore, veto power can only block changes and cannot be used to pull the EU into undesirable new directions. Even this veto power can be avoided if the EU-25 establishes whatever policies they desire prior to Turkish membership, forcing Turkey to accept a fait accompli. Despite these limitations to its power, Turkey may have some influence in purely intergovernmental settings such as negotiations over new treaties that might occur some decades hence.

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    Item Type: Working Paper
    Subjects for non-EU documents: EU policies and themes > Treaty reform > enlargement
    Countries > Turkey
    Subjects for EU documents: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Series and Periodicals: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Annual Reports: UNSPECIFIED
    Series: Series > University of Illinois (Champaign-Urbana), European Union Center > Working Papers
    Depositing User: Phil Wilkin
    Official EU Document: No
    Language: English
    Date Deposited: 11 Jun 2008
    Page Range: p. 45
    Last Modified: 15 Feb 2011 17:49

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