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Is Economic Growth Synchronicity Higher in Europe than Elsewhere?

Crowley, Patrick M. and Schultz, Aaron (2011) Is Economic Growth Synchronicity Higher in Europe than Elsewhere? [Conference Proceedings]

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    Synchronization of growth rates are an important feature of international business cycles, particularly in relation to regional integration projects such as the single currency in Europe. Synchronization of growth rates clearly enhances the effectiveness of European Central Bank monetary policy, ensuring that policy changes are more attuned to the dynamics of growth and business cycles in the majority of euro area member states. In this paper a dissimilarity metric is constructed by measuring the topological differences between the GDP growth patterns in recurrence plots for individual countries. The results show that synchronization of growth rates were higher among the euro area member states during the second half of the 1980s and from 1997 to roughly 2002. Apart from these two time periods, euro area member states do not appear to be more synchronized than a group of major international countries, suggesting that apart from specific times when European integration initiatives were being implemented, globalization was the dominant factor behind international business cycle synchronization.

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    Item Type: Conference Proceedings
    Subjects for non-EU documents: EU policies and themes > Policies & related activities > economic and financial affairs > economic growth
    Subjects for EU documents: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Series and Periodicals: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Annual Reports: UNSPECIFIED
    Conference: European Union Studies Association (EUSA) > Biennial Conference > 2011 (12th), April 23-25, 2011
    Depositing User: Phil Wilkin
    Official EU Document: No
    Language: English
    Date Deposited: 31 Oct 2019 16:03
    Number of Pages: 30
    Last Modified: 31 Oct 2019 16:03

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