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Cyclical dimensions of labour mobility after EU enlargement. Bruegel Working Paper 2009/03, May 2009

Ahearne, Alan and Brücker, Herbert and Darvas, Zsolt and von Weizsacker, Jakob. (2009) Cyclical dimensions of labour mobility after EU enlargement. Bruegel Working Paper 2009/03, May 2009. [Working Paper]

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    At a time of symmetric global slowdown, migration cannot contribute as much to absorbing economic shocks as it could if the shock were asymmetric. • Early evidence suggests that the crisis has led to a drop in immigration and even net return migration from some countries. This has helped the adjustment of former EU15 host countries and has exacerbated adjustment in former source countries in the new member states. In the short run, the stock of new member-state migrants in the EU15 will fall owing to diminished job opportunities for migrants. • Changes in the unemployment rate in the host country are found to impact migration more than that of changes in the unemployment rate in the source country. In part, this can be explained by the disproportionate risk of migrants losing their jobs in the downturn. • In the longer run, the crisis is set to increase migration from the new member states compared to what would have been the case without the crisis. This is because the crisis has undermined the economic growth model of those new member states that relied heavily on external financing to fuel their growth.

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    Item Type: Working Paper
    Uncontrolled Keywords: Labour mobility; economic cycle.
    Subjects for non-EU documents: EU policies and themes > Policies & related activities > employment/labour market > labour/labor
    Subjects for EU documents: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Series and Periodicals: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Annual Reports: UNSPECIFIED
    Series: Series > Bruegel (Brussels) > Working Papers
    Depositing User: Phil Wilkin
    Official EU Document: No
    Language: English
    Date Deposited: 08 Jul 2014 14:09
    Number of Pages: 39
    Last Modified: 08 Jul 2014 19:00

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