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Demographic Epidemiologic Projections of Long-Term Care Needs in Selected European Countries: Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Poland. ENEPRI Research Report No. 112, March 2012

Bonneux, Luc and Van Der Gaag, Nicole and Bijwaard, Govert (2012) Demographic Epidemiologic Projections of Long-Term Care Needs in Selected European Countries: Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Poland. ENEPRI Research Report No. 112, March 2012. UNSPECIFIED.

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    Abstract

    Work Package 2 of the ANCIEN project assesses the future numbers of care-dependent elderly in four selected countries: Spain, Poland, Germany and the Netherlands. The estimates are consistent with the available disability data and the mortality forecasts of the EUROPOP 2008 scenarios. The results show the effects of assumptions about how old age disability and mortality are related, and assess the effects of smoking and BMI. The main determinant of future numbers of disabled elderly turns out to be the demographic ageing of the large baby boom cohorts. The impact of life extension depends on the correlation of old age disability and mortality, and is moderate under reasonable assumptions. Obesity and (quitting) smoking have very little effect.

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    Item Type: Other
    Subjects for non-EU documents: Countries > Germany
    Countries > Netherlands
    Countries > Poland
    Countries > Spain
    EU policies and themes > Policies & related activities > social policy > welfare state
    Subjects for EU documents: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Series: UNSPECIFIED
    ["eprint_fieldname_eusries" not defined]: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Annual Reports: UNSPECIFIED
    Series: Series > Centre for European Policy Studies (Brussels) > ENEPRI Research Reports
    Depositing User: Phil Wilkin
    Official EU Document: No
    Language: English
    Date Deposited: 03 Apr 2012 15:21
    Number of Pages: 38
    Last Modified: 03 Apr 2012 15:21
    URI: http://aei.pitt.edu/id/eprint/34449

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