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Demographic Epidemiologic Projections of Long-Term Care Needs in Selected European Countries: Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Poland. ENEPRI Policy Brief No. 8, February 2012

Bonneux, Luc and Van Der Gaag, Nicole and Bijwaard, Govert and Mot, Esther and Willemé, Peter (2012) Demographic Epidemiologic Projections of Long-Term Care Needs in Selected European Countries: Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Poland. ENEPRI Policy Brief No. 8, February 2012. [Policy Paper]

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    Abstract

    The objectives of Work Package (WP) 2 of the EU FP7 project ANCIEN are to assess the actual and future numbers of elderly care-dependent persons in selected countries. Such projections are needed to support planning to meet future needs for long-term care (LTC) across the EU. This study has selected four countries for projections of LTC needs: Spain, Poland, Germany and the Netherlands. These countries are representative of European epidemiology and of different systems for the provision of long-term care. Using the mortality forecasts of the EUROPOP 2008 scenarios as a basis for projections of the number of disabled elderly persons, the study adds scenarios on the effects of smoking and obesity. The study finds that the main determinant of the future numbers of the disabled elderly is the demographic ageing of the large baby boom cohorts, which is projected to cause increases of 44% (Germany), 65% (Spain), 82% (the Netherlands) and 57% (Poland). The impact of life extension depends on the correlation of disability in old age and mortality, and is moderate under reasonably conservative assumptions (with rises of 11% for Germany, 7% for Spain, 9% for the Netherlands and 22% for Poland). For Poland, convergence with Germany on the onset of disability in terms of timing would limit this increase. Obesity and (quitting) smoking have little effect – increasing levels of disability by around 2 percentage points per absolute increase in the prevalence of obesity of 5%, while quitting smoking has even less effect.

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    Item Type: Policy Paper
    Subjects for non-EU documents: EU policies and themes > Policies & related activities > public health policy
    Countries > Germany
    Countries > Netherlands
    Countries > Poland
    Countries > Spain
    EU policies and themes > Policies & related activities > social policy > welfare state
    Subjects for EU documents: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Series: UNSPECIFIED
    ["eprint_fieldname_eusries" not defined]: UNSPECIFIED
    EU Annual Reports: UNSPECIFIED
    Series: Series > Centre for European Policy Studies (Brussels) > ENEPRI Policy Briefs
    Depositing User: Phil Wilkin
    Official EU Document: No
    Language: English
    Date Deposited: 16 Feb 2012 14:59
    Number of Pages: 12
    Last Modified: 16 Feb 2012 21:59
    URI: http://aei.pitt.edu/id/eprint/33554

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