The EU’s Gas Security of Supply: Risk Analysis and Management. EU Diplomacy Paper 10/2011, December 2011

Ritter, Anselm (2011) The EU’s Gas Security of Supply: Risk Analysis and Management. EU Diplomacy Paper 10/2011, December 2011. [Working Paper]

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Abstract

The energy world is today full of uncertainty: many developments contributed to a situation where it has become increasingly difficult to predict future trends. At the same time, the European Union’s gas import dependency is growing, and thereby also risks that have the potential to jeopardise the EU’s security of gas supply. Thus, while the situation becomes increasingly difficult, it is also more and more important for the EU to know the risks that challenge its secure supply of gas. Only when the EU is able to identify and evaluate the different risk dimensions adequately, it will be able to successfully manage and reduce these risks. As a growing international actor the EU will have to assume the task of risk management, not only because of the added value of its action in this field but also because this will prevent the member states from drafting risk management strategies which are entirely national. This paper asks what the main risks to the EU’s security of gas supply are and how they can be reduced. It provides a comprehensive risk analysis, followed by a second part dedicated to the management of these risks. It is argued that the transit risk posed by Ukraine represents the highest risk to the EU’s security of gas supply. Moreover, although the EU has some useful means at hand to reduce the transit risk, its capacity to do so will largely depend on Russia’s policies towards Ukraine.

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