Hajner, John. (2001) "Understanding European voting behavior: An examination of ticket splitting in European elections". In: UNSPECIFIED, Madison, Wisconsin. (Unpublished)
The European Union has come a long way since its inception. One area that has received little attention is the European Parliament elections. There has been even less attention given to explain the three propositions offered by Reif and Schmitt about European Parliament elections: 1) turnout will be lower in European Parliament elections than in national elections; 2) national government parties will suffer losses in European Parliament elections; and 3) larger parties will do worse and smaller parties will do better in European Parliament elections. Before taking the next step forward it is important to look back and examine the basic premises of Second Order Elections. Several areas that have not been addressed deal directly with voter turnout and party vote. First, if government parties lose votes, do they lose votes to other parties? Or are votes lost because of low voter turnout? Second, if government parties do lose votes to other parties, is this loss significant? Third, do new and small parties really gain votes from larger parties or are voters who do not vote in national elections (and support smaller parties) deciding to vote in European elections? In other words, from where do small and new parties gain votes? Finally, if support for small and extreme parties does not increase over time, do the supporters of these parties change each election?
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